The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast Southeast Asia’s 2020 GDP growth rate, with Vietnam forecast to lead GDP growth at 4.1%. The bank says that Southeast Asia's GDP growth contract by -2.7% this year, but is expected to rebound to 5.2% in 2021.
The ADB has ranked other countries in the region and makes the following forecasts for this year. Myanmar is in second place with a positive growth rate estimated at 1.8% and Brunei is third place with positive growth estimated at 1.4%.
There are three countries the ADB pointed out that are in negative territory, Cambodia with an estimated negative growth rate of 5.5%, Singapore with negative growth of 6% and Thailand with negative growth estimated at 6.5%.
ADB – Southeast Asia GDP Estimates for 2020
The ADB’s latest report, downgrades Vietnam by 0.7% from a previous ADB projection of 4.5%in April. The bank said the lower forecast was based on the agriculture sector, which is suffering from lower export volumes.
The bank also said that even though Vietnam was reopening its domestic tourism industry, the sectors recovery will not be enough to offset the drop in foreign tourists to the country that Vietnam has experienced, including a 98% year-on-year decline in May.
The ADB predicts that the agriculture sector and the service sector will experience slow growth during the rest of this year because of the twin factors of a drop in domestic consumption and a concurrent fall in external due to the global Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the ADB says that it expects Vietnam growth to bounce back in 2021 and the bank says that it continues to forecast Vietnam’s growth in 2021 at 6.8 percent. The banks report notes that Vietnam had record growth of 7.08% in 2018, followed by growth of 7.02% in 2019, and that the country has been extremely efficient in containing the Covid-19 pandemic and can look for continued growth in a post-pandemic world.